![]() “I think it's a little unfair to Republicans to say that a gain in the high teens, for instance, would be some sort of big disappointment,” Kondik told Playbook. (None of the four forecasts above contemplates a Republican gain of more than 35 seats.) We wouldn’t use the W-word unless Biden got into Clinton-Obama-Trump territory of losing over 40 House seats.Losses of 30-40 seats would be an above-average midterm drubbing, though well short of what Biden’s recent predecessors faced.Losses in the 20-30 range would be a normal midterm, but below what would be expected given Biden’s unpopularity and voters’ views of the economy.Democratic losses below 20 House seats would be a subpar night for Republicans.But given these historical trends, here’s our rough guide: There’s no agreed upon definition of what constitutes a wave. In a review of several political science models of how Democrats should fare in 2022 given fundamentals like the state of the economy and JOE BIDEN’s approval rating, Vanderbilt’s John Sides notes that Democrats’ expected losses should be about 40-45 seats, which is well above the range predicted by major handicappers. Three of the last four presidents did much worse in their first midterms: BILL CLINTON lost 54 seats, BARACK OBAMA lost 63 seats, and DONALD TRUMP lost 40 seats. The modern average is a loss of 27 House seats. IS IT A WAVE? - In the House, the most likely outcome is that this will be a typical midterm in which the president’s party loses seats. ( See here this afternoon for his final analysis.)įiveThirtyEight’s House model: Republicans have an 80% chance of winning between 1 and 33 seats. Kondik’s final prediction: Republicans +24 seats. We believe a Republican gain of 15 to 25 seats is most likely, but it wouldn't be terribly surprising if the Toss Ups broke mostly their way, pushing GOP gains even higher.” If those Toss Ups were to split evenly down the middle, Republicans would wind up at around 230 seats (+17). Wasserman’s final House prediction: “Heading into Election Day, 212 seats are at least Lean Republican, 188 seats are at least Lean Democrat and there are 35 Toss Ups. In 2018, Democrats won 15 of POLITICO’s 22 ‘Toss Up’ contests in their 40-seat wave election. In 2020, Republicans won 26 of the 27 seats rated as ‘Toss Up’ by POLITICO. “A GOP sweep of those ‘Toss Up’ races would represent a gain of nearly 30 seats, and it’s not unusual for one party to win the lion’s share of competitive contests. An even, 50-50 split of the ‘Toss Up’ districts would translate to a 16-seat Republican gain. Even if Republicans fail to win any of the 26 ‘Toss Up’ races - just 2 of the 26 would give them the majority - they are currently projected to gain 3 seats. “The current breakdown of the House (allocating vacant seats to the party that last won them) is 222 Democrats and 213 Republicans. There are 26 seats rated as ‘Toss Up’ - races where neither party has a significant advantage. By comparison, just 194 districts are in the ‘Solid,’ ‘Likely’ and ‘Lean Democratic’ categories. “Including the latest shifts, 216 seats are now in the ‘Solid,’ ‘Likely’ or ‘Lean Republican’ category - meaning Republicans are only two seats away from the majority, according to the forecast. The scenario of Democrats retaining control - something that was seen as a modest longshot late in the summer - is now viewed as exceedingly unlikely. Add FiveThirtyEight’s model into the mix, and we see handicappers predicting that the GOP will gain between one and 35 seats, with most emphasizing gains in the twenties. We were also fortunate to get a preview of both DAVID WASSERMAN’s final House forecast over at The Cook Political Report and KYLE KONDIK’s final House forecast over at Sabato’s Crystal Ball. But the Senate is firmly up for grabs.” You can read his breakdowns of the Senate and gubernatorial races, but we want to dig into the House forecasts this morning. The big takeaway : “Republicans have a grip on the House majority. Sunday, per the United States Elections Project.įINAL FORECASTS - Steve Shepard’s final predictions were posted overnight. | Ted Shaffrey/AP Photo DRIVING THE DAYĪLMOST THERE - 1 day left until Election Day. People in privacy booths vote at an early voting polling site in New York City on Tuesday, Nov.
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